Modeling as a tool of strategic development of the regional logistics system

Abstract

The article examines the influence of the main factors of production on the development of the regional logistics system (on the example of the Black Sea economic region). Forecast estimates of factors of production are made and models of economic growth of the logistic system of the region with the use of economic and mathematical tools are developed. Based on the calculations, a conclusion was made about the inefficiency of the use of the main factors of production. This has led to a decline in freight traffic across the logistics system.

The analysis of the impact assessment of the main factors of production and their efficiency makes it possible to develop strategic directions for the development of the transport and logistics system while taking into account certain regularities. A more detailed analysis of directly unidentified factors that determine the scale effect, including those mentioned above, and factors related to the implementation of modern innovation, green, digital technologies and the assessment of opportunities to enter international markets, formation of qualitatively new marketing strategies and cluster model of logistic activity in the Black Sea economic region.

Keywords

regional economy, logistics system, features, patterns, trends, strategic development, strategizing, factors of production, tools, statistical analysis, modeling, models of economic growth, forecasting, economic and mathematical methods

Анотація

У статті досліджено вплив основних факторів виробництва на розвиток регіональної логістичної системи (на прикладі Чорноморського економічного району). Зроблено прогнозні оцінки факторів виробництва та розроблено моделі економічного зростання логістичної системи регіону з використанням економіко-математичного інструментарію. На основі проведених розрахунків зроблено висновок про неефективність використання основних факторів виробництва. Це призвело до зниження вантажоперевезень у логістичній системі.

Аналіз оцінки впливу основних факторів виробництва та їх ефективності дає змогу розробити стратегічні напрями розвитку транспортно-логістичної системи з урахуванням певних закономірностей. Більш детальний аналіз безпосередньо неідентифікованих факторів, що визначають ефект масштабу, у тому числі згаданих вище, та факторів, пов’язаних із впровадженням сучасних інновацій, зелених, цифрових технологій та оцінкою можливостей виходу на міжнародні ринки, формуванням якісно нових маркетингових стратегій та кластерна модель логістичної діяльності в Чорноморському економічному регіоні.

Ключові слова

регіональна економіка, логістична система, особливості, закономірності, тенденції, стратегічний розвиток, стратегування, фактори виробництва, інструменти, статистичний аналіз, моделювання, моделі економічного зростання, прогнозування, економіко-математичні методи

Back to Table of Contents No 12 (2022)

Hryhorak M.Yu. Doctor of Economics, Associate Professor, Senior Research Fellow in Institute of Cybernetics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (Ukraine)

• ORCID – 0000-0002-5023-8602
• Researcher ID –
• Scopus author id: 57208222758

Zaloznova Yu. Corresponding Member of the NAS of Ukraine, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Director (Head), Institute of Industrial Economics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (Ukraine)

• ORCID –  0000-0003-3106-1490
• Researcher ID –
• Scopus author id: – 57202317183

Trushkina N.V. PhD (Economics), Senior Research (, Senior Research Fellow, Department of Regulatory Policy and Entrepreneurship Development Institute of Industrial Economics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (Ukraine)

• ORCID –  0000-0002-6741-7738
• Researcher ID – C-1441-2018
• Scopus author id: – 57210808778

1. 1. Beresford, A. K. C., Pettit, S. J., Whittaker, W. (2005). Improving supply chain performance through quality management in a global distribution environment. International Journal of Services and Operations Management, 1(1), 75-89. https://doi.org/10.1504/ IJSOM.2005.006319.
   2. Gunasekaran, A. (2005). Editorial: New service and manufacturing environments: challenges for operations management researchers and practitioners. International Journal of Services and Operations Management, 1(1), 1-6. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJSOM.2005.006313.
   3. Huemer, L. (2006). Supply Management: Value creation, coordination and positioning in supply relationships. Long Range Planning, 39(2), 133-153. DOI: 10.1016/j.lrp.2006.04.005.
   4. Blaik, P. (2010). Logistyka. Koncepcja zintegrowanego zarzadzania. Warszawa: Polskie Wydawnictwo Ekonomiczne.
   5. Kotler, P., Keller, K. L. (2014). Marketing Management. 14th ed. Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
   6. Murphy, P. R., Wood, D. F. (2017). Sovremennaja logistika [Modern Logistic]. 8th ed. Moscow: I. D. Williams LLC. (in Russia)
   7. Bowersox, D. J., Closs, D. J. (2017). Logistika: integrirovannaja cep’ postavok [Logistic: Integrated Supply Chain]. 2nd ed. Moscow: Olymp-Business. (in Russia)
   8. Dźwigoł, H., Dźwigoł-Barosz, M. (2018). Scientific research methodology in management sciences. Financial and credit activity: problems of theory and practice, 2(25), 424-437.
   9. Dźwigoł, H. (2019). Research methods and techniques in new management trends: research results. Virtual Economics, 2(1), 31-48. https://doi.org/10.34021/ve.2019.02.01(2).
   10. Кwilinski, A. (2018). Mechanism of modernization of industrial sphere of industrial enterprise in accordance with requirements of the information economy. Marketing and Management of Innovations, 4, 116-128. https://doi.org/10.21272/mmi.2018.4-11.
   11. Kwilinski, A. (2018). Mechanism for assessing the competitiveness of an industrial enterprise in the information economy. Research Papers in Economics and Finance, 3(1), 7-16. https://doi.org/10.18559/ref.2018.1.1.
   12. Krykavskyi, Ye.V., Pokhylchenko, O.A., Chornopyska, N.V. et al. (2014). Ekonomika lohistyky [Economics of logistics]. Lviv: Lviv Polytechnic Publishing House. (in Ukrainian)
   13. Krykavskyi, Ye.V., Vasyltsiv, N.M., Falovych, V.A. (2015). Materialni potoky u lohistytsi promyslovoho pidpryiemstva [Material flows in the logistics of an industrial enterprise]. Lviv: Lviv Polytechnic Publishing House. (in Ukrainian)
   14. Krykavskyi, Ye., Liulchak, Z., Tsyran, Ya., Petetskyi, I. (2015). Partnerski vidnosyny na rynku B2B ta B2C [Partnerships in the B2B and B2C market]. Lviv: Lviv Polytechnic Publishing House. (in Ukrainian)
   15. Zrobek, J. (2011). Marketing w klastrach logistycznych. Acta Universitatis Lodziennsis. Folia Oeconomica, 251, 5-16.
   16. Szuster, M. (2012). Rola klastrow we wspieraniu innowacyjnosci [The role of clusters in innovation supporting]. Ekonomiczne Problemy Uslug, 94, 311-325.
   17. Kruczek, M., Zebrucki, Z. (2014). Koncepcja klastrow logistycznych. Zeszyty naukowe Politechniki Slaskiej. Ser.: Organizacja i zarzadzanie, 70, 229-241.
   18. Frankowska, M. (2015). Klastry logistyczne jako ogniwa globalnych lancuchow dostaw. Logistyka, 3, 5633-5637.
   19. Dmukhovski, R. (2019). Poniattia lohistychnykh klasteriv ta efektyvnosti ekonomichnykh pidpryiemstv [The concept of logistics clusters and efficiency of economic enterprises]. Journal of the European Economy, 18(3(70)), 296-306. https://doi.org/10.35774/ jec2019.03.351. (in Ukrainian)
   20. Hrytsenko, S. I. (2019). Modeliuvannia systemy tsinnostei ekolantsiuha postachan yak dominanta transportno-lohistychnykh klasteriv [Modeling the system of values of the ecological supply chain as the dominant transport and logistics clusters]. Bulletin of Economic Science of Ukraine, 1(36), 31-34. (in Ukrainian)
   21. Kharazishvili, Yu.M., Lyashenko, V.I. (2017). Problemy otsinky ta intehralni indeksy staloho rozvytku promyslovosti Ukrainy z pozytsii ekonomichnoi bezpeky [Evaluation problems and integrated indices of sustainable development of Ukrainian industry from the standpoint of economic security]. Economy of Ukraine, 2, 3-23. (in Ukrainian)
   22. Ivanov, S. V., Kharazishvili, Ju. M. (2017). Innovacijni faktory rozvytku transportnoji systemy Ukrajiny [Innovative factors of development of the transport system of Ukraine]. Bulletin of Economic Science of Ukraine, 2, 47-55. (in Ukrainian)
   23. Kharazishvili, Yu.M. (2019). Systemna bezpeka staloho rozvytku: instrumentarii otsinky, rezervy ta stratehichni stsenarii realizatsii [System security of sustainable development: assessment tools, reserves and strategic implementation scenarios]. Kyiv: Institute of Industrial Economics of the NAS of Ukraine. (in Ukrainian)
   24. Nykyforuk, O. I. (2014). Modernizatsiia nazemnykh transportnykh system Ukrainy [Modernization of land transport systems of Ukraine]. Kyiv: Institute of Economics and Forecasting of NAS of Ukraine. (in Ukrainian)
   25. Nykyforuk, O. I. (Ed.) (2017). Rozvytok infrastrukturnykh sektoriv yak chynnyk realizatsii priorytetnykh napriamiv ekonomichnoi polityky Ukrainy [Development of infrastructure sectors as a factor of realization of priority directions of economic policy of Ukraine]: collective monograph. Kyiv: Institute of Economics and Forecasting of NAS of Ukraine. (in Ukrainian)
   26. Nykyforuk, O. I., Stasiuk, O. M., Chmyrova, L. Yu., Fediai, N. O. (2019). Tsyfrovizatsiia v transportnomu sektori: tendentsii ta indykatory rozvytku. Chastyna 1 [Digitization in the transport sector: trends and indicators of development. Part 1]. Statistics of Ukraine, 3, 70-81. https://doi.org/10.31767/su.3(86)2019.03.08. (in Ukrainian)
   27. Ilchenko, S. V., Karpenko, H. Yu. (2017). Assessment of the transport infrastructure impact on the regional development. Economic Innovations, vol. 65 (pp. 67-72). Odessa: IPMEER NAS of Ukraine. https://doi.org/10.31520/ei.2017.19.3(65).67-72.
   28. Kwilinski, A. (2019). Implementation of Blockchain Technology in Accounting Sphere. Academy of Accounting and Financial Studies Journal, 23(SI2), 1-6. Retrieved from https://www.abacademies.org/articles/Implementation-of-Blockchain-Technology-in-Accounting-Sphere-1528-2635-23-SI-2-412.pdf (accessed 27 March 2022).
   29. Bakaiev, O.O., Bazhan, L.I., Kaidan, L.I. et al. (2007). Ekonomiko-matematychne modeliuvannia i informatsiini tekhnolohii v upravlinni ekonomichnymy systemamy riznykh rivniv iierarkhii [Economic and mathematical modeling and information technologies in the management of economic systems of different levels of the hierarchy]. Kyiv: Lohos. (in Ukrainian)
   30. Denysenko, M.P., Levkovets, P.R., Mykhailova, L.I. (2012). Orhanizatsiia ta proektuvannia lohistychnykh system [Organization and design of logistics systems]. Kyiv: Center for Educational Literature. (in Ukrainian)
   31. Kolomytseva, A.O., Yakovenko, V.S. (2012). Modeliuvannia protsesiv optymalnoho upravlinnia lohistychnymy rozpodilchymy systemamy [Modeling of processes of optimal management of logistics distribution systems]. Business Inform, 7, 18-21. (in Ukrainian)
   32. Goncharov, Yu.V., Kostyuk, G.V. (2012). Metodolohichni aspekty formuvannia lohistychnoi systemy na pidpryiemstvakh lehkoi promyslovosti [Methodological aspects of the formation of the logistics system in light industry enterprises]. The Problems of Economy, 3, 97-107. (in Ukrainian)
   33. Korobskyi, R.V., Snihur, R.V. (2012). Osnovni aspekty imitatsiinoho modeliuvannia u suchasnykh ekonomichnykh systemakh [The main aspects of simulation in modern economic systems]. Aktualni problemy ekonomichnoho i sotsialnoho rehionu – Current issues of economic and social region, 159-164. (in Ukrainian)
   34. Volosnikova, N.M. (2013). Imitatsiine modeliuvannia yak instrument optymizatsii prymyrennia lohistychnykh pidsystem [Simulation modeling as a tool for optimizing the reconciliation of logistics subsystems]. Bulletin of Socio-Economic Research, 1(48), 189-195. (in Ukrainian)
   35. Korniyetskyi, O.V. (2014). Lohistychna systema rozpodilu produktsii v umovakh transportno-lohistychnoho kompleksu [Logistic system of product distribution in terms of transport and logistics complex]. Economic analysis: collection sciencific works (pp. 35-41). Ternopil: Publishing and Printing Center of Ternopil National University of Economics ” “Ekonomichna dumka”, vol. 17, no. 3. (in Ukrainian)
   36. Sysoiev, V.V. (2015). Kontseptsiia modeliuvannia lohistychnoho upravlinnia postachanniam syl sektoru bezpeky i oborony derzhavy [The Concept of Simulating the Logistics Management of Supplying the Forces of the State Security and Defense Sector]. The Problems of Economy, 3, 342-351. (in Ukrainian)
   37. Aloshynskyi, Ye.S., Meshcheriakov, V.V., Rudenko, H.S. (2016). Development of methods for increase of work indices of logistic chain within transport and logistics cluster. Technology audit and production reserves, 5/2(31), 48-52.
   38. Sokolovska, Z.M., Andriienko, V.M., Ivchenko, I.Yu. et al. (2016). Matematychne ta kompiuterne modeliuvannia ekonomichnykh protsesiv [Mathematical and computer modeling of economic processes]. Odesa: Astroprynt. (in Ukrainian)
   39. Taranenko, Yu., Fedorenko, I. (2016). Imitatsiine modeliuvannia lohistychnykh protsesiv [Simulation modeling of logistics processes]. Bulletin of the Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, 8(185), 38-44. https://doi.org/10.17721/1728-2667.2016/185-8/5. (in Ukrainian)
   40. Vostriakova, V. (2017). Metodychni pidkhody modeliuvannia ta analizu lohistychnykh system rozpodilu produktsii APK [Methodical approaches to modeling and analysis of logistics systems for the distribution of agricultural products]. Agrosvit, 11, 56-61. (in Ukrainian)
   41. Prymachenko, H., Yasenovskaya, K. (2018). Modeliuvannia lohistychnoi systemy upravlinnia shvydkisnymy zaliznychnymy perevezenniamy [Modeling of logistics system of high-speed railway transportation management]. Collection of scientific works of the Ukrainian State University of Railway Transport (pp. 127-136). Kharkiv: USURT, iss. 180. (in Ukrainian)
   42. Khoroshun, V.V., Naumenko, I.A. (2018). Economic and mathematical methods and models for forecasting sales logistics of a commercial enterprise. Black Sea Economic Studies, 28-2, 179-183. (in Ukrainian)
   43. Ivchenko, I.Yu., Pietukhov, B.V. (2018). Modeliuvannia lohistychnykh system [Modeling of logistics systems]. Ekonomichna kibernetyka: teoriia, praktyka ta napriamky rozvytku [Economic cybernetics: theory, practice and directions of development]: materials of Scientific and Practice Conference (Odesa, November 28-29, 2018) (pp. 69-71). Odesa: Odesa Polytechnic State University. (in Ukrainian)
   44. Potapova, N.A. (2019). Prohnozuvannia dynamiky potochnykh lohistychnykh materialnykh vytrat silskoho hospodarstva Ukrainy [Forecasting the dynamics of current logistical material costs of agriculture in Ukraine]. Economy. Finances. Management: current issues of science and practice, 4, 41-52. (in Ukrainian)
   45. Makarenko, N. (2020). Modeliuvannia stsenariiv rozvytku lohistychnykh system ahrarnykh pidpryiemstv [Modeling of scenarios for the development of logistics systems of agricultural enterprises]. Bulletin of Sumy National Agrarian University. Ser.: Economics and Management, 3(85), 61-68. (in Ukrainian)
   46. Samostian, V. (2020). Efektyvne vykorystannia pidkhodiv dlia imitatsiinoho modeliuvannia lohistychnykh protsesiv [Efficient use of approaches for simulation modeling of logistics processes]. Modern technologies in mechanical engineering and transport, 2(15), 127-133. https://doi.org/10.36910/automash.v2i15.400 (in Ukrainin)
   47. Sakunova, I.S. (2009). Imitatsiine modeliuvannia v zadachakh doslidzhennia materialnykh potokiv lohistychnykh system [Simulation modeling in the problems of research of material flows of logistics systems]. Ekonomiko-matematychne modeliuvannia sotsialno-ekonomichnykh system [Economic and mathematical modeling of socio-economic systems]: a collection of scientific papers (pp. 91-114). Kyiv: ISTC ITiS, iss. 14. (in Ukrainian)
   48. Kolodizeva, T.A., Panasyants, A.S. (2012). Modeliuvannia orhanizatsiinoho zabezpechennia funktsionuvannia lohistychnykh system promyslovykh pidpryiemstv [Modeling of Organizational Support for Logistical System Enterprise Functioning]. Business Inform, 10, 254-259. (in Ukrainian)
   49. Larina, R.R., Lukyanova, O.Y. (2013). Modeliuvannia biznes-protsesiv promyslovoho pidpryiemstva v napriamku rozvytku yoho lohistychnoho menedzhmentu [Modeling of business processes of an industrial enterprise in the direction of development of its logistics management]. Ekonomika ta derzhava – Economy and State, 7, 17-22. (in Ukrainian)
   50. Box, J., Jenkins, G. (1974). Analiz vremennykh ryadov: prognoz i upravlenie [Time Series Analysis: Forecast and Management]. Moscow: World, iss. 1. (in Russian)
   51. Shelobaev, S. I. (2000). Matematicheskie metody i modeli v ekonomike, finansakh, biznese [Mathematical methods and models in economics, finance, business]. Moscow: UNITY-DANA. (in Russian)
   52. Yerina, A. M. (2001). Statystychne modeliuvannia ta prohnozuvannia [Statistical modeling and forecasting]. Kyiv: KNEU. (in Ukrainian)
   53. Heiets, V.M., Klebanova, T.S., Cherniak, O.I., Ivanov, V.V., Dubrovina, N.A., Stavytskyi, A.V. (2005). Modeli i metody sotsialno-ekonomichnoho prohnozuvannia [Models and methods of socio-economic forecasting]. Kharkiv: INZhEK. (in Ukrainian)
   54. Shamileva, L. L. (2008). Statisticheskoe modelirovanie i prognozirovanie [Statistical modeling and forecasting]. Donetsk: DonNU. (in Russian)
   55. Kulynych, R.O. (2008). Statystychni metody analizu vzaiemozviazku pokaznykiv sotsialno-ekonomichnoho rozvytku [Statistical methods of analysis of the relationship between indicators of socio-economic development]. Kyiv: Format. (in Ukrainian)
   56. Kulynych, O.I., Kulynych, R.O. (2014). Statystychni metody prohnozuvannia makroekonomichnykh pokaznykiv ta sposoby yikh otsinky [Statistical methods of forecasting macroeconomic indicators and methods of their evaluation]. Universytetski naukovi zapysky – University scientific notes, 4, 283-295. (in Ukrainian)
   57. Hryhorak, M.Yu. (2016). Analiz biznes-modelei ta stratehii innovatsiinoho rozvytku postachalnykiv lohistychnykh posluh [Analysis of business models and strategies innovative development of logistics service providers]. Technological audit and production reserves, 2/5(28), 29-38. (in Ukrainian)
   58. Hryhorak, M.Yu. (2017). Kontseptualni polozhennia rozroblennia natsionalnoi lohistychnoi stratehii v heoekonomichnomu vymiri [Conceptual provisions for the development of a national logistics strategy in the geoeconomic dimension]. Intelligence XXI, 4, 58-64. (in Ukrainian)
   59. Hryhorak, M.Yu. (2017). Intelektualizatsiia rynku lohistychnykh posluh: kontseptsiia, metodolohiia, kompetentnist [Intellectualization of the logistics services market: concept, methodology, competence]. Kyiv: Sik Group Ukraine. (in Ukrainian)
   60. Grygorak, M.Yu. (2017.) Comparison of economic indicators of using the Ukrainian logistics potential. Technological audit and production reserves, 3/5(35), 49-57.
   61. Hryhorak, M., Karpenko, O., Semeriahina, M. (2020). Formation of the multimodal transportation ecosystem in Ukraine. Intellectualization of logistics and Supply Chain Management, 2, 111-130. https://doi.org/10.46783/smart-scm/2020-2-9.
   62. Hryhorak, M., Dzwigol, H., Trushkina, N., Shkrygun, Yu. (2021). Substantiation of expediency of the complex approach for supply chains management in the COVID-19 conditions. Intellectualization of logistics and Supply Chain Management, 5, 6-25. https://doi.org/10.46783/smart-scm/2021-5-1.
   63. Hryhorak, M., Lyakh, O., Sokolova, O., Chornogor, N., Mykhailichenko, I. (2021). Multimodal freight transportation as a direction of ensuring sustainable development of the transport system of Ukraine. IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 915, Article 012024. https://doi.org/ 10.1088/1755-1315/915/1/012024.
   64. Zaloznova, Yu.S., Trushkina, N.V. (2016). Metodychni pidkhody do prohnozuvannia pokaznykiv zbutovoi diialnosti vuhledobuvnykh pidpryiemstv [Methodical approaches to forecasting the performance of coal mining enterprises]. Business Inform, 9,105-111. (in Ukrainian)
   65. Kashchena, N., Solokha, D., Trushkina, N., Potemkin, L., Mirkurbanova, R. (2019). Use of multi-agent simulation modeling for predicting the sales of wholesale trade companies. Journal of Management Information and Decision Sciences, 22(4), 483-488.
   66. Zaloznova, Yu.S., Trushkina, N.V. (2020). Udoskonalennia orhanizatsii zbutovoi diialnosti vuhledobuvnykh pidpryiemstv Ukrainy v umovakh nestabilnosti popytu: teoriia i praktyka [Improving the organization of sales activities of coal mining enterprises of Ukraine in conditions of demand instability: theory and practice]. Kyiv: Institute of Industrial Economics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. (in Ukrainian)
   67. Kwilinski, A., Zaloznova, Yu., Trushkina, N., Rynkevych, N. (2020). Organizational and methodological support for Ukrainian coal enterprises marketing activity improvement. E3S Web of Conferences, 168, Article 00031. https://doi.org/ 10/1051/e3sconf/202016800031.
   68. Ivanov, S.V., Liashenko, V.I., Shamileva, L.L., Trushkina, N.V. (2019). Tendentsii rozvytku transportno-lohistychnoi systemy Prydniprovskoho ekonomichnoho raionu [Trends in the development of the transport and logistics system of the Dnieper economic region]. Visnyk ekonomichnoi nauky Ukrainy – Bulletin of Economic Science of Ukraine, 2(37), 143-150. https://doi.org/ 10.37405/1729-7206.2019.2(37).143-150. (in Ukrainian)
   69. Trushkina, N.V. (2020). Prohnozuvannia rozvytku rehionalnoi transportno-lohistychnoi systemy Prychornomorskoho ekonomichnoho raionu [Forecasting the development of the regional transport and logistics system of the Black Sea economic region]. Black Sea Economic Studies, 51, 155-165. https://doi.org/10.32843/bses.51-25. (in Ukrainian)
   70. Ivanov, S.V., Liashenko, V.I., Trushkina, N.V. (2020). Prohnozna otsinka pokaznykiv rozvytku rehionalnoi transportno-lohistychnoi systemy Prydniprovskoho ekonomichnoho raionu [Forecast assessment of indicators of development of the regional transport and logistics system of the Dnieper economic region]. Administrative-territorial vs economic-spatial borders of regions: materials International Scientific and Practical Conference (Kyiv, March 19-20, 2020) (pp. 445-451). Kyiv: KNEU. (in Ukrainian)
   71. Trushkina, N.V. (2020). Rozroblennia modeli ekonomichnoho zrostannia rehionalnoi transportno-lohistychnoi systemy (na prykladi Prychornomorskoho ekonomichnoho raionu) [Development of a model of economic growth of the regional transport and logistics system (on the example of the Black Sea economic region)]. Black Sea Economic Studies, 58-2, 76-80. https://doi.org/10.32843/bses.58-3. (in Ukrainian)
   72. Liashenko, V., Ivanov, S., Trushkina, N. (2021). A Conceptual Approach to Forming a Transport and Logistics Cluster as a Component of the Region’s Innovative Infrastructure (on the Example of Prydniprovsky Economic Region of Ukraine). Virtual Economics, 4(1), 19-53. https://doi.org/10.34021/ve.2021.04.01(2).